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Climate-driven changes in aquatic pathogen distribution and emerging human infectious disease risks
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M.H.M. Nazmul   , M.T. Osman , L.L. Win , M.W. Udayah , A.J.K. Chowdhury |
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Abstract: (6 Views) |
Climate change is altering aquatic ecosystems and influencing the distribution of waterborne pathogens, creating potential threats to human health. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns may increase environmental conditions favourable for infectious microorganisms. Studies of climate-driven changes in aquatic pathogens have been conducted previously but there is little comparative evidence across bacterial and protozoan species. This study aims to fill this gap by exploring climate-driven pathogen suitability and potential human exposure under different environmental conditions. A computational simulation was performed for Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio vulnificus and Cryptosporidium spp. for 12 aquatic monitoring sites and four climate scenarios. Under the highest-change scenario, the percentage of suitable habitat-days for V. cholerae increased from 79.42% to 99.08%, and for V. vulnificus from 53.52% to 76.17%. The results show opposing pathogen responses to warming and changes in precipitation. These results provide a basis for improving climate-sensitive aquatic surveillance, environmental monitoring, and public health preparedness strategies.
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| Keywords: Climate change, Aquatic pathogens, Waterborne infectious diseases, Environmental suitability, Human exposure assessment |
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Full-Text [PDF 448 kb]
(14 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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